Published in Marketing
U.S. wheat production to fall to lowest level since 2002

The U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecast U.S. 2017/18 wheat production at 47.4 million metric tons (MMT), down 25% year over year and 19% below the 5-year average. The reason: an anticipated 12% decline in average yield and the lowest planted acres since USDA records began in 1919. However, USDA expects 2017/18 U.S. beginning stocks to total 32.2 MMT, up 21% year over year and the most since 1988/89. As a result, total 2017/18 U.S. wheat supply is forecast at 79.5 MMT, down 11% from 2016/17 and almost equal to the 5-year average of 79.3 MMT. USDA expects average yield to be 46.3 bu/acre (3.11 MT/ha), which is 2% below the 5-year average of 46.6 bu/acre (3.13 MT/ha). 

USDA estimates total planted wheat area has fallen 8% year over year to 46.0 million acres (18.6 million hectares). If realized, that would be 16% lower than the 5-year average. USDA expects 2017/18 harvested area to drop 14% from last year and 19% below the 5-year average to 37.6 million acres (15.2 million hectares).


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